Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

The market strongly favors Guevara losing the 2026 election.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.75% chance of Mesías Guevara not winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election. The Pulse AI also reflects a strong sentiment against his victory, with a 95.25% probability of a loss. Given the confidence level of 60/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Guevara's victory.
• 2 The probability of a win is low, reflecting strong skepticism from traders.
• 3 Historical trends suggest incumbents or established politicians have an advantage.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable with a clear consensus.
• 5 Time until the election may allow for shifts in public perception.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).