Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Michelle Bolsonaro has a very low chance of winning the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.

The prediction market indicates a 0.25% probability of Michelle Bolsonaro winning the election, while the AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 3.25%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a strong consensus against her candidacy, reflected in the high NO probabilities.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Bolsonaro's chances.
• 2 The AI model suggests a marginally higher probability than the market.
• 3 Confidence in the market's pricing is relatively high at 85/100.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).