Will Miguel Cadima win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

Miguel Cadima is highly unlikely to win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Miguel Cadima winning the election, with a market probability of only 0.05% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 4.55% for his victory, indicating a significant lack of support or momentum for his campaign.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Cadima.
• 2 The low probabilities suggest minimal confidence in his candidacy.
• 3 Market and AI probabilities are closely aligned, indicating stability.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, limiting potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in the predictions.

The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).