Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?

Market suggests low likelihood of Díaz-Canel leaving leadership before 2027.

The prediction market indicates a 20.5% chance that Miguel Díaz-Canel will step down before 2027, with a strong majority (79.5%) believing he will remain in power. The market appears fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence at 65 out of 100. With nearly 7000 hours until expiry, there is ample time for potential shifts in sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors Díaz-Canel remaining in power.
• 2 The probability reflects stability in Cuban politics.
• 3 Historical trends suggest incumbents often maintain leadership.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears balanced with no significant edge.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential developments impacting the market.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.