Will Miguel Roca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?

Miguel Roca has a low chance of winning the 2026 La Paz mayoral election.

The prediction market indicates a 7.4% probability of Miguel Roca winning the upcoming election, while Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 11.9%. The market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100, indicating moderate certainty in the current probabilities.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Roca's chances are perceived as low based on current data.
• 3 The market's edge suggests fair pricing of probabilities.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 110 hours.

The La Paz mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).