Will Miguel Uribe Turbay win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Miguel Uribe Turbay is currently projected to lose the 1st round of the 2026 election.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Miguel Uribe Turbay winning the first round, with a 100% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting minimal chance for a YES outcome. This alignment indicates a stable market view with a high level of confidence.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Uribe Turbay.
• 2 Market probability shows no confidence in his victory at this stage.
• 3 The Pulse AI suggests a slight chance of a YES outcome, but it remains low.
• 4 The edge of 3 indicates the market is fairly priced with little room for error.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in the political landscape.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).