Will Mireille Damiano win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?

Mireille Damiano is highly unlikely to win the 2026 Nice mayoral election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Mireille Damiano winning the upcoming mayoral election, with a 99.95% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 3.05% for a YES outcome, indicating a general lack of confidence in her candidacy.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher but still low probability for YES at 3.05%.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 1442 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).