Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

Market indicates a low probability of Mitch McConnell stepping down before his term ends.

The prediction market shows a 37.5% chance of Mitch McConnell stepping down before the end of his term, with a majority of 62.5% believing he will not. The market appears fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence at 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards McConnell completing his term.
• 2 The probability reflects a balanced view with no significant edge.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty about future developments.
• 4 Time to expiry indicates over 300 days, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current probability estimates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.