Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Low probability for Mohsen Araki as next Supreme Leader of Iran.

The market indicates a strong consensus against Mohsen Araki becoming the next Supreme Leader, with a 99.9% probability of 'NO'. Despite a slightly higher AI probability of 3.1% for 'YES', the overall sentiment remains firmly against his ascension to leadership.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 99.9%.
• 2 AI probability suggests a slight chance for 'YES' at 3.1%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100.
• 5 Time to expiry is extensive at 7132 hours, allowing for potential developments.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme