Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Mojtaba Khamenei is highly favored to become the next Supreme Leader of Iran.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus with a 100% probability for Mojtaba Khamenei as the next Supreme Leader. The AI probability also supports this view at 96%, indicating high confidence in this outcome. The market appears fairly priced, suggesting limited room for shifts in sentiment at this time.

• 1 Market shows unanimous support for Khamenei at 100%.
• 2 AI model aligns closely with market sentiment at 96%.
• 3 Current edge indicates the market is fairly priced with minimal discrepancy.
• 4 High confidence level of 90/100 suggests strong belief in the outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme