Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Mostafa Pourmohammadi is highly unlikely to become the next Supreme Leader of Iran.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Mostafa Pourmohammadi becoming the next Supreme Leader, with a 99.85% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability for his ascension, suggesting that current sentiment and analysis do not favor his candidacy.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO', indicating strong skepticism about Pourmohammadi's chances.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher but still low, suggesting limited confidence in his potential rise.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on available information.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 suggests a moderate level of certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments that could influence the market.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme