Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Low probability for Muhammad Mirbaqiri as next Supreme Leader of Iran.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Muhammad Mirbaqiri becoming the next Supreme Leader, with a 97.85% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 6.65%, suggesting some uncertainty in the market.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 97.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 6.65%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7135 hours, allowing for potential developments.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme