Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Naftali Bennett has a 29% chance of becoming the next Prime Minister of Israel.

The prediction market indicates a 29% probability for Naftali Bennett to be the next Prime Minister, suggesting skepticism about his chances. With a majority of 71% betting against him, the market appears to reflect a consensus that other candidates are more likely to succeed. The confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily against Bennett's candidacy.
• 2 The probability reflects a stable political landscape with no immediate changes.
• 3 Historical trends suggest that incumbents or established leaders often have an advantage.
• 4 Market liquidity appears sufficient, allowing for reasonable price discovery.
• 5 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.