Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

The Nepali Congress is unlikely to win the most seats in the election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the Nepali Congress will not secure the most seats, with a 99.85% likelihood of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability for a YES outcome at 3.15%, suggesting consensus on the party's weak position. The edge of 3 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on available information.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Nepali Congress.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest limited confidence in Nepali Congress's electoral success.
• 3 Historical trends may favor other parties over Nepali Congress in recent elections.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent betting patterns.
• 5 Uncertainty about the election date may affect market dynamics.

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election.

If voting in the next Nepali election for the House of Representatives does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Commission, Nepal (https://election.gov.np/np/).