Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for New People winning the most seats.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of New People winning the most seats in the upcoming Russian parliamentary election, with a consensus of 98.9% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for 'YES'.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 98.9%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 5.6%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 4850 hours, allowing for potential developments.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalit