Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Nicole Shanahan has a very low chance of winning the California Governor Election in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 0.15% probability of Nicole Shanahan winning, with a consensus leaning heavily towards a 'NO' outcome. The Pulse AI probability also reflects a low likelihood of 3.15% for a win, suggesting that current sentiment is strongly against her candidacy.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Shanahan's candidacy.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with the AI's assessment.
• 3 There is a low historical base rate for outsiders winning California gubernatorial races.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting consistent participant confidence.
• 5 Time until the election allows for potential shifts in dynamics, but confidence remains low.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.