Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?

Market indicates low probability for Maduro receiving a 60-year prison sentence.

The prediction market shows a 26% probability that Nicolás Maduro will be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison, suggesting a strong belief that this outcome is unlikely. With a confidence level of 50/100 and an edge of 0, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting a balanced view among participants.

• 1 Current market probability for a 60-year sentence is 26%.
• 2 The majority (74%) believe Maduro will not receive such a sentence.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate, indicating uncertainty among participants.
• 4 No edge suggests that the market is accurately reflecting current sentiments.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments to influence the market.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.

If the imposed sentence falls exactly be