Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

The market strongly favors that no listed leader will be out before 2027.

With a market probability of 97.35% for 'NO', participants believe it is unlikely that any listed leader will exit before 2027. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for both outcomes. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors stability among listed leaders.
• 2 The high 'NO' probability suggests low perceived risk of leadership changes.
• 3 Historical trends show few leaders exiting in similar timeframes.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential developments in political dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.