The market strongly favors no replacement for Mullin before the midterm election.
Current market probabilities indicate a near certainty that no one will replace Markwayne Mullin as U.S. Senator from Oklahoma prior to the midterm election. The Pulse AI also reflects a high likelihood of Mullin remaining in office, though with slightly less confidence than the market. This suggests a consensus on Mullin's position, but with some room for uncertainty.
On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of Oklahoma, or otherwise formally selected according the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Markwayne Mullin’s seat as United States Senator from Oklahoma.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
Additionally, if, prior to November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a widespread consensus of credible reporting indicates that Markwayne Mullin will complete his term as United States Senator (e.g. if Mullin’s nomination as Secretary of Homeland Security is rejected or withdrawn and he announces he will complete his term), this market will resolve immediately to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Oklahoma; h