Will Norway join the Board of Peace?

Low probability of Norway joining the Board of Peace based on current market data.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Norway joining the Board of Peace, with a market probability of 98.3% for 'NO.' The Pulse AI probability also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting minimal expectation for a change in this outcome.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong preference for 'NO' at 98.3%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 4.7%.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 suggests moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:

- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.

- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).

Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board