Will Norway win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Norway is unlikely to win the Eurovision 2026 televote based on current predictions.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Norway winning the televote, with a probability of only 0.45% for a YES outcome. This contrasts with the Pulse AI's estimate of 4.95%, indicating some divergence in expectations. Overall, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Norway.
• 2 The market probability suggests low confidence in Norway's chances.
• 3 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome.
• 4 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is well-aligned with expectations.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.