Will Paetongtarn Shinawatra be the next prime minister of Thailand?

Paetongtarn Shinawatra has a very low chance of becoming Thailand's next prime minister.

The prediction market indicates a 0.05% probability of Paetongtarn Shinawatra being the next prime minister, suggesting strong skepticism about her candidacy. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 3.05%, but both figures reflect a consensus that she is unlikely to succeed. With a confidence level of 80/100, the market appears fairly priced given the current political landscape.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for her candidacy.
• 2 Political dynamics in Thailand are currently unfavorable for her.
• 3 Historical trends show low success rates for candidates from her political background.
• 4 Liquidity in the market suggests limited investor interest in her chances.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential political changes, but risks remain low.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Thailand on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially selected and appointed to be Prime Minister of Thailand following the 2026 general legislative election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally selected for the role of Prime Minister and appointed to the role by the king of Thailand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is selected and appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Thailand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.