Will "Palestine" be said at the Oscars?

The market strongly favors that 'Palestine' will be mentioned at the Oscars.

With a market probability of 100% for 'YES' and an AI probability of 97.5%, there is a strong consensus that 'Palestine' will be referenced at the Oscars. The edge of -2.5 suggests the market is fairly priced, reflecting a high level of confidence in this outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of a 'YES' response.
• 2 The AI probability closely aligns with market expectations, indicating confidence.
• 3 The edge suggests no significant mispricing in the market.
• 4 The high confidence score reflects strong belief in the outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to the market dynamics.

The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled broadcast of the Oscars on ABC. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

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