Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Paloma Valencia has a low chance of winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

The prediction market indicates a 22.80% probability of Paloma Valencia winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower probability of 21.3%. With a confidence level of 75/100 and an edge of -1.5, the market appears fairly priced, reflecting skepticism about her candidacy.

• 1 Current market sentiment is largely against Valencia's candidacy.
• 2 The probability reflects a stable political landscape with little change anticipated.
• 3 Historical trends suggest incumbents or established figures often dominate elections.
• 4 Liquidity in the market indicates moderate interest but not overwhelming support for Valencia.
• 5 Time until the election allows for potential shifts in dynamics and voter sentiment.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).