Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Park Ju-min has a low chance of winning the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election.

The current market probability indicates a strong belief that Park Ju-min will not win the upcoming election, with a 96% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting a 91.5% likelihood of losing. With a confidence level of 60/100, the market appears to be fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against Park Ju-min's victory.
• 2 Current sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 3 Historical trends suggest incumbents have an advantage.
• 4 Low liquidity may affect market responsiveness to new information.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.

The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.