Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

The Parti conservateur du Québec is unlikely to win the most seats in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the Parti conservateur du Québec will not secure the most seats in the upcoming election, with a 99.7% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of victory at 4.8%. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in the NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low probability for a YES outcome.
• 3 Current sentiment indicates stability in opposition to the Parti conservateur.
• 4 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time until the election allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).