Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?

PSOE is unlikely to win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election according to current market data.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against PSOE winning, with a 95.1% probability for a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of victory for PSOE in the upcoming election.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for PSOE.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI predictions.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 104 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available data.

Elections for the autonomous community of Castilla y Leon’s unicameral legislature (Cortes) are scheduled for March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Cortes of Castilla y Leon as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).