Will Patrick Keating be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?

Low probability for Patrick Keating as the Democratic nominee for IL-02.

The market indicates a strong consensus against Patrick Keating being the Democratic nominee for IL-02, with a 99.7% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of his nomination at 3.3%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.7%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment at 96.7% for 'NO'.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 5 Uncertainty in time to expiry may affect future market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.