Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Low probability for Paul Reevs as the Republican nominee for AZ-01.

The prediction market indicates a 3.5% chance for Paul Reevs to be the Republican nominee for AZ-01, with a strong consensus against it at 96.5%. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting limited support for his candidacy. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' for Reevs' nomination.
• 2 The market probability is significantly lower than Pulse AI's estimate.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in the political landscape.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.