Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Pete Hegseth has a low chance of winning the 2028 Republican nomination.

The prediction market indicates a 0.45% probability of Pete Hegseth winning the Republican presidential nomination, with a strong consensus against him at 99.55%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 3.45%, but overall sentiment remains firmly in favor of a 'NO' outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Hegseth.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI prediction.
• 3 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in the NO verdict.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent interest in the market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.