Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Phil Murphy's chances for the 2028 Democratic nomination are very low.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Phil Murphy will not secure the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with a 99.35% probability against it. The AI model also reflects a low probability of 3.65% for his nomination, suggesting a consensus on his limited viability as a candidate. The market appears fairly priced, indicating stable sentiment around this prediction.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome.
• 2 AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment, reinforcing low expectations.
• 3 Current political dynamics favor other candidates over Murphy.
• 4 The market's edge suggests no significant mispricing at this time.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential shifts but current sentiment is strong.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.