Will Phạm Minh Chính be the next President of Vietnam?

Phạm Minh Chính is highly unlikely to become the next President of Vietnam.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Phạm Minh Chính becoming the next President, with a 99.85% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 1.65% for 'YES,' suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge towards the AI's prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' for Chính's presidency.
• 2 The probability gap indicates low confidence in his candidacy.
• 3 Historical trends show limited chances for incumbents in leadership changes.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.
• 5 The time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

Vietnam’s President is selected through internal decisions of the Communist Party of Vietnam and its National Assembly. The Party is holding its 14th National Congress from January 19 to January 25, 2026, after which the National Assembly of Vietnam is expected to elect leadership positions including President.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is formally elected by the National Assembly to assume the office of President of Vietnam.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected to assume the office of President. Any acting, interim, or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If the offices of President of Vietnam and General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam are merged such that an individual is elected to hold a joint office as leader of the party and head of state of Vietnam, this market will resolve to that individual.

If no such President is elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Assembly of Vietnam; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be u