Will Phạm Thị Thanh Trà be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?

Low probability for Phạm Thị Thanh Trà as next Prime Minister of Vietnam.

The market indicates a very low likelihood of Phạm Thị Thanh Trà becoming the next Prime Minister, with a 0.05% probability for 'YES'. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 1.55%, but overall sentiment remains firmly against her candidacy.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' for her candidacy.
• 2 Market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level of 85 indicates a strong consensus among participants.
• 4 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Lack of time pressure may allow for gradual shifts in sentiment.

Vietnam’s Prime Minister is selected through internal decisions of the Communist Party of Vietnam. The Party is scheduled to hold its 14th National Congress from January 19 to January 25, 2026, after which the National Assembly of Vietnam is expected to formally elect the next Prime Minister.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is formally elected by the National Assembly and officially assumes office as Prime Minister of Vietnam.

To count for resolution, the individual must formally assume the office of Prime Minister. Any acting, interim, or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister assumes office by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Assembly of Vietnam; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.