Will Portugal win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Portugal is unlikely to win the Eurovision 2026 televote based on current predictions.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability of Portugal winning the televote for Eurovision 2026, with a market probability of 0.35% for 'YES' and 99.65% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus that Portugal's chances are minimal at this time.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Portugal's win.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a strong consensus against Portugal's chances.
• 3 Market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 1281 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.