Will Pushpa Kamal Dahal (“Prachanda”) be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?

The market strongly favors that Prachanda will not be the next Prime Minister of Nepal.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that Pushpa Kamal Dahal will not become Prime Minister, with a NO probability of 99.65%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 3.35%, suggesting some uncertainty. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.65%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 3.35%.
• 3 The market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level in the market's prediction is moderate at 65/100.
• 5 Time to expiry for the market is currently unknown, adding uncertainty.

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.