Will Rabi Lamichhane be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?

Rabi Lamichhane has a low chance of becoming Nepal's next Prime Minister.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Rabi Lamichhane becoming the next Prime Minister, with a 99.85% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 3.15%, indicating some uncertainty in the market's confidence level.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for Lamichhane's candidacy.
• 2 The market probability suggests a strong belief in alternative candidates.
• 3 Pulse AI indicates a slight possibility, but overall confidence remains low.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 3.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.