Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Low probability for Rachel Reeves as next UK Prime Minister in 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Rachel Reeves becoming the next Prime Minister, with a 97.35% probability of NO. The AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 7.15% for YES, indicating some uncertainty but still favoring the NO outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors NO at 97.35%.
• 2 AI model predicts a slightly higher YES probability at 7.15%.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7116 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.