Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

Rachida Dati has a low chance of winning the Paris mayor election, with 31.5% probability.

The prediction market indicates a 31.5% chance of Rachida Dati winning the Paris mayor election, while the AI model suggests a slightly lower probability of 30%. With a market edge of -1.5, the current probabilities appear to be fairly priced, reflecting a consensus that she is unlikely to secure victory.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily against Dati winning.
• 2 The AI model aligns closely with market probabilities.
• 3 Confidence in the market's pricing is relatively high at 75/100.
• 4 No imminent expiry may influence market dynamics.
• 5 Political landscape changes could impact Dati's chances.

The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).