Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa is unlikely to win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Rafael Belaúnde Llosa winning, with a 99.65% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of YES at 4.85%, indicating a lack of confidence in his candidacy as the election approaches.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.65%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 4.85%.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 774 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).