Will Rafael López Aliaga and Alfonso López Chau advance to the runoff?

Low probability for Rafael López Aliaga and Alfonso López Chau to advance to the runoff.

The prediction market indicates a 7.5% chance for Rafael López Aliaga and Alfonso López Chau to advance, with a stronger consensus against their advancement at 92.5%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 12%, but overall confidence in their success remains low at 55 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability suggests a strong likelihood of NO advancement.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly more optimistic but still low.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 55/100 reflects moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 328 hours, allowing for potential developments.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).