Will Rafael López Aliaga and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?

Low probability for López Aliaga and Nieto to advance to the runoff.

The prediction market indicates a 3.95% chance of Rafael López Aliaga and Jorge Nieto advancing to the runoff, with a strong consensus against it at 96.05%. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 8.45%, but overall confidence in their advancement remains low.

• 1 Market shows strong skepticism about López Aliaga and Nieto's chances.
• 2 Current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 55/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry of 329 hours allows for potential shifts in dynamics.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).