Will Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?

Low probability for López Aliaga and Sánchez to advance to runoff.

The market indicates a 10% chance of Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advancing to the runoff, with a strong consensus against it at 90%. The Pulse AI offers a slightly higher probability of 14.5%, suggesting some uncertainty in the market. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 90%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 14.5% for 'YES'.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is 327 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a 4.5 edge.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).