Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Rafael López Aliaga has a 42.5% chance of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

The prediction market indicates a 42.5% probability of Rafael López Aliaga winning the upcoming presidential election, suggesting a competitive race. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge, market participants appear divided on his chances. The time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment as the election approaches.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome at 57.5%.
• 2 López Aliaga's support remains stable but not leading.
• 3 The market is currently fairly priced with no edge.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time until the election allows for potential volatility in predictions.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).