Will Rastriya Prajatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

Rastriya Prajatantra Party is unlikely to win the most seats in the election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the Rastriya Prajatantra Party winning the most seats, with a 99.95% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of victory, suggesting limited confidence in the party's electoral prospects.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI probability indicates a slight chance for 'YES' at 3.05%.
• 3 The edge suggests the market is fairly priced with no significant mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to the market dynamics.

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election.

If voting in the next Nepali election for the House of Representatives does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Commission, Nepal (https://election.gov.np/np/).