Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

Rastriya Swatantra Party is highly favored to win the most seats in the election.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood of the Rastriya Swatantra Party winning the most seats in the upcoming House of Representatives election, with a market probability of 99.55%. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 97.05%, suggesting a consensus on the party's strong position. The edge of -2.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a high level of confidence in this outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Rastriya Swatantra Party.
• 2 High probabilities suggest limited room for price movement.
• 3 Historical trends may support the party's current momentum.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, allowing for reliable trading.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to final outcomes.

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election.

If voting in the next Nepali election for the House of Representatives does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Commission, Nepal (https://election.gov.np/np/).