Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?

The market strongly favors Erdoğan remaining leader until 2027.

With a market probability of 99.1% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus that Erdoğan will not leave leadership before 2027. The Pulse AI probability further supports this view, indicating a low likelihood of change. The confidence level of 65/100 suggests moderate certainty in these predictions.

• 1 Current sentiment is overwhelmingly against Erdoğan leaving office.
• 2 Market pricing suggests stability in Erdoğan's leadership position.
• 3 Historical trends show incumbents often maintain power until elections.
• 4 Liquidity appears sufficient for market participants to act on predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential political developments to unfold.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.