Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Market strongly favors Erdoğan not winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of 99.15% for Erdoğan not winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 96.15%, suggesting a consensus against his candidacy. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly opposes Erdoğan's chances.
• 2 The consensus probability suggests low confidence in his nomination.
• 3 Historical trends show limited likelihood for controversial figures to win.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with a clear majority opinion.
• 5 Time until the prize announcement allows for potential shifts in perception.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.