Will Reed Showalter be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?

Reed Showalter is highly unlikely to be the Democratic nominee for IL-07.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Reed Showalter being the Democratic nominee for IL-07, with a 99.95% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 4.55% for 'YES', indicating that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment overwhelmingly favors 'NO'.
• 2 The probability gap suggests low confidence in Showalter's candidacy.
• 3 Historical trends show incumbents or established figures often dominate primaries.
• 4 Liquidity in this market indicates limited trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 130 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.