Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Low probability for Renan Santos to finish second in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.

The prediction market assigns a 3.40% chance for Renan Santos to secure second place, significantly lower than the AI's estimate of 7.9%. With a high NO probability of 96.6%, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting a lack of confidence in his candidacy. The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment as the election approaches.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 AI probability suggests a slightly more optimistic view for YES.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time until the election could allow for shifts in public opinion.
• 5 Liquidity levels appear stable, supporting current pricing.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).