Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

The market strongly favors that Reza Pahlavi will not be the next Supreme Leader of Iran.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that Reza Pahlavi will not become the next Supreme Leader, with a 99.5% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus against his ascension to power. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 80 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong NO sentiment at 99.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment at 96.5% NO.
• 3 Current confidence level is high at 80 out of 100.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7136 hours, allowing for potential developments.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme